International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Management

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Taking into account, the uncertain time duration for each activity in a pert network, we would need to accept the notion that the critical path of the project could also vary a number of times during its execution. If these variations take place frequently during the project in an unpredictable manner, it could endanger the efficient management of that project, and in addition to lengthening the time frame of execution, it would result in financial burden for these responsible. The objective of this article is to present an algorithm that could potentially prevent the occurrence of unpredictable events in the critical path . Using this algorithm, after risk identification in each activity and the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the activities, we calculate the respective time durations considering the different events that could carry potential risk for the purpose of identifying significant and material risks. Following this, a parameter called MVC identifies an interval. if activity duration was in that interval, the critical path would be change. Then through the techniques of economical engineering and decision making, conclusions are drawn to whether allow the critical path to undergo variation under anticipated situation.

Keywords: Critical Path, Pert, Sensitivity Analysis, Risk

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