fa مقایسه دو رویکرد توسعه سمت عرضه انرژی الکتریکی در مقابل مدیریت سمت تقاضا با روش سیستم های دینامیک سایر موضوعاتی که به مرزهای دانش در مهندسی صنایع و تولید کمک می کند Other related Industrial and production reserach subjects in which has direct relation to the state-of-the art of the IE پژوهشي Research <p align="right"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">افزایش جمعیت و توسعه صنعتی در کشور به دنبال خود رشد در تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی را موجب خواهد شد. تامین این انرژی<font face="Nazanin"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font size="3">  </font></span>سرمایه گذاری در احداث واحدهای نیروگاهی و مصرف سوخت فسیلی را به دنبال خواهد داشت که این امر تبعات مختلفی به همراه دارد. از سویی دیگر مدیریت سمت تقاضا رویکردی در جهت منطقی سازی مصرف و کاستن از نرخ رشد تقاضا است. با توجه به ماهیت علت و معلولی بخش انرژی و تاثیر متقابل متغیر ها در این بخش و نیز پیچیدگی های حاکم بر آن لازم است تا به کمک ابزارهایی ،</font></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman","serif" FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-bidi-font-family: Nazanin mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" lang="FA"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">سیاستهای اتخاذ شده در این بخش مورد آزمون قرار گیرد. در این مقاله با استفاده از رویکرد سیستمهای دینامیکی مدلی ارائه شده که به کمک آن می توان اثرات ناشی از دو جهت گیری توسعه بخش عرضه و کنترل سمت تقاضا را با هم مقایسه نمود. در این تحقیق که برای اولین بار بدین شکل برای بخش انرژی در ایران صورت گرفته، در ابتدا بصورت کلان به موضوع نگاه شده و پس از ارائه یک مدل کلی برای بررس</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> رفتار و برهم کنش متغ</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">رها</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> کلان در زنج</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">ره انرژ</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> الکتر</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">ک</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> ا</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">ران، بخش</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> از مدل کل</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> جهت بررس</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> جزئ</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> تر انتخاب شده و مدل<font face="Nazanin"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font size="3">  </font></span>برا</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA"> ا</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">ن بخش که بخش عرضه م</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">باشد ، توسعه داده شده و در نها</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" dir="rtl" lang="AR-SA">ی</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Nazanin FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA" dir="rtl" lang="FA">ت مدل با استفاده از اطلاعات موجود حل شده است. نتایج حاصل از اجرای این مدل حاکی از آن است که دینامیک سرمایه گذاری و روند احداث همه فناوریها در حالت مدیریت بخش تقاضا، شرایط بهتری را نسبت به حالتی که گرایش به سمت توسعه بخش عرضه است، ایجاد می کند.</span></p> <em><span style="FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman","serif" FONT-SIZE: 11pt mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Zar' mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA">Population growth and industrial development cause the growth in electricity demand. Supply of this energy needs investment for installation of new power stations and more fuel consumption with different consequences. Furthermore, Demand side management is an approach to rationalize and reduce the rate of demand growth. With attention to the cause and effect nature in energy sector, interaction of variables in this sector, and also its complexities it is required that the policies be tested by some advanced tools. In this paper, a system dynamics based model has been presented. By this model, the results of two approaches-demand side control and supply side development can be compared</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman","serif" FONT-SIZE: 10pt mso-fareast-language: EN-US mso-ansi-language: EN-US mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman' mso-bidi-language: FA">.</span></em> سیستم‌های دینامیکی مدلسازی، عرضه انرژی الکتریکی، تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی System Dynamics, Modeling, Electricity Supply,Electricity Demand 341 358 http://ijiepm.iust.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-138-5&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 نسیم نهاوندی N_nahavandi@modares.ac.ir 180031947532846003547 180031947532846003547 Yes استادیار بخش مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس کیان نجف زاده Kian_N_Z@yahoo.com 180031947532846003548 180031947532846003548 No کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس،